Refinancing has quietly become the main game in the Australian mortgage market.

New data from Money.com.au’s latest Mortgage Insights Report, reported by Australian Broker, shows that in the year to September 2025 Australians refinanced 618,966 loans, compared with 537,326 new loans. In simple terms, more people are reshuffling their existing debt than taking out brand new mortgages, and the gap between the two has flipped by almost 180,000 loans compared with 2021. 

At the same time, Equifax data shows mortgage applications jumped 10.3% in the September quarter, the strongest lift since 2021, even though the total number of active mortgage accounts actually fell slightly.

So, activity is up, but people are being more deliberate. Here is how MAW Money sees it, and what it could mean for you.

Refinancing is at a four year high – but most people are staying with their bank

Around 70 to 75 per cent of refinancing is being driven by owner occupiers, which tells you households are highly rate sensitive and focused on monthly repayments. Internal refinancing, where you switch products but stay with the same lender, grew 29 per cent over the year, almost double the 15 per cent growth in external refinances. Australian Broker News

That lines up with what we are seeing on the ground. Banks are working harder to keep you, often matching or “sharpening” rates to stop you walking.

What this means for you

• Staying with your current lender can absolutely make sense if the rate and structure are competitive.

• However, if most of the market is refinancing internally, a lot of borrowers may not be testing the market properly.

• A quick phone call with the bank is not the same as a full review across multiple lenders and products.

This is where a broker like MAW Money can create leverage for you, by putting your current offer up against a wider panel and using that to drive a better outcome.

New build lending is falling – and that keeps pressure on prices

New-build, land and construction loans fell 3.5 per cent over the year to 124,359, which is now more than 38 per cent below the June 2021 peak. Australian Broker News

Money.com.au’s property expert, Debbie Hays, notes that when finance for new builds keeps going backwards, it is a sign supply is not keeping up. More buyers are being forced to compete for existing homes, which supports higher prices and larger average loan sizes. Australian Broker News

What this means for you

• If you are looking at established property, you are competing in a tight market with limited new stock coming through.

• If you are planning to build, you need to think carefully about your funding structure, timelines and buffers, because lenders are more cautious and build costs can still move.

This is another area where tailoring the right structure up front matters more than ever.

Investors are back, first home buyers are falling behind

Investor loans rose 9 per cent over the year to 205,533, more than 32 per cent above their September 2023 low. Victoria led investor growth at 13 per cent, supported by improving yields and relatively better affordability in many suburbs, while Queensland still holds the largest overall investor share at 23.4 per cent. Australian Broker News

Owner occupier activity is also recovering, with loans up 3 per cent to 331,793, led by Queensland with 5 per cent annual growth and more owner occupier loans than WA and SA combined.

But first home buyers are moving in the opposite direction. First home buyer loans fell 3 per cent while other buyers grew 8 per cent. Even with expanded schemes like the First Home Guarantee, deposit support only makes a small dent when borrowing capacity, high prices and limited supply are still the big constraints.

What this means for you

• Investors are leaning back in where yields stack up and rents are strong. Product choice, tax settings and cash flow buffers are critical.

• Upgraders and downsizers are driving a lot of the movement in established suburbs, often using equity from earlier growth.

• First home buyers need more strategy than ever, because the gap between intent and affordability is widening.

How MAW Money is thinking about refinancing strategy in this market

Whether you are an owner occupier, investor or first home buyer, the current data points to a few clear priorities.

1. Do not set and forget your rate
If you have not reviewed your loan in the past 6 to 12 months, there is a good chance you are not on your lender’s best rate. With internal refinancing at record levels, banks are clearly prepared to move for the right customers – but they may not do it automatically.

2. Look beyond the headline rate
Refinancing is not just about shaving a fraction of a percent off your rate. It is also about:

• Restructuring your debts (for example, consolidating higher interest debts)

• Adjusting your loan term and repayment type

• Making sure your product features (offset, redraw, fixed vs variable) still match your goals

3. Plan around supply and competition
With new build lending down, established properties in good locations remain highly contested. For our clients this means:

• Getting pre-approval sorted early

• Stress testing repayments at higher rates

• Mapping out your “Plan B” if the right property takes longer to find

4. Be honest about your timeframe
Investors looking at Victoria, Queensland or other growth markets need to align loan structure with their investment horizon, rental assumptions and risk appetite. First home buyers might need to consider options like shared equity, regional locations, or starting with an investment property first, depending on their situation.

Where to from here?

The takeaway from this latest data is simple. The market is active, but it is not easy. Refinancing is at a four year high, new build finance is shrinking, investors are returning and first home buyers are doing it tougher.

In this kind of environment, having someone in your corner who lives and breathes lending policy, rates and product changes can make a real difference.

If you would like MAW Money to review your current loan, pressure test your next move, or put a plan around getting into the market, reach out for a chat. There is no cost to explore your options, and it may give you a clearer path forward.